1.- The Six-Game Suspension of Ezekiel Elliot
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has been suspended six games without pay by the NFL for his alleged role in a domestic violence case from last July ano the Cowboys won’t be able to replace his numbers with anyone.
McFadden and Alfred Morris can’t replace Zeke’s work. Although they will try to compensate for his loss they simply can’t live up to his standard and produce his numbers.
Elliot ran for more 1,600 rushing yards and 15 TD, but more importantly he had an outstanding average of 5.23 yards per carry when facing eight men in the box. It is very hard in the NFL to find backs who can produce as well as Elliot against teams that expect you to run on them.
The Cowboys as a result could face longer third down situations and lose in the time of possession, an advantage that came with having a strong running game.
2.- A Weak pass rush
No Cowboys player made more than six sacks last season. The team managed 36 last year, but the truth is that with Elliot on the field they were able to have longer drives and control the game clock, so late in the games their defense was cooler and more rested than the opponents’ defense.
Rod Marineli probably already has a contingency plan, but the truth is that the defensive line of the Cowboys is seen by other league executives as one of the weakest in the entire NFL. Unless Taco Charlton has an immediate impact and surprises everyone, it seems that Dallas will continue to struggle with the pass rush.
3.- Dak Prescott Is Under Pressure To Perform From The Start
Dak Prescott will have to prove this year that he is for real and capable of winning without Elliot providing long runs.
Last year he took the league by surprise and was one of the most efficient quarterbacks (he had only four interceptions). Now the teams have had time to study him and he will probably have to adjust a lot as defenses are going to be better prepared against him.
To expect him to complete more than 65 percent of his passes and pass for more than 23 touchdowns (as he did as a rookie) is unlikely, but Dallas will have to provide with the best weapons available and the right strategy to overcome Elliot’s suspension.
If Prescott leads the team to anything better than a 3-3 record he will have delivered and the Cowboys’ season outlook could change, but right now that seems highly unlikely.
4.- Inexperienced Secondary
At this point the Cowboys starting secondary are Nolan Carroll, Orlando Scandrick, Jeff Heath and Byron Jones. The backups are rookies Jourdan Lewis and Xavier Woods. Those names are probably not giving much confidence to the fans and team’s front office when your league schedule includes teams with quarterbacks such as Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr.
5.- Cowboys’ First Place Schedule
Last year Dallas took advantage of facing a weak regular season schedule and only had one loss against teams that won seven games or less. The Cowboys will now seven teams that made the Playoffs (twice against the Giants, who swept them) and a Denver team that had nine victories last season. The games that Elliott is going to miss include some dominating and solid teams that will not underestimate Dallas this year, even without their top running back.
6.- A Tough Start To The Season.
Is very tough for a team to start 0-3 and still qualify for the playoffs. With Elliott’s six-game suspension, the chances of a that happening are very high, especially as the Cowboys will probably be the underdog in the first three games of their season against the New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. All of these teams have dominating defenses that can contain the ground game and pressure the quarterback effectively, as well as having enough weapons in their passing game to exploit the Cowboys secondary and control their weak pass rush.
Prediction
Looking at the current schedule and roster situation, Dallas will more likely finish with seven to nine wins and miss the playoffs.
