A game of division winners takes place on Sunday as The Minnesota Vikings (13-3), Champions of the NFC North, host the New Orleans Saints (12-5), winners of the NFC South, at U.S Bank Stadium in the second NFL divisional round matchup of the day.
During the first game that both teams played in week one this season, the Vikings defeated the Saints 29-19, but these teams are noticeably different as several starters have changed since that match took place.
When the Vikings hosted the Saints in week 1, Sam Bradford and running back Dalvin Cook lit it up for the home team, while the biggest story for the Saints was Adrian Peterson returning to Minnesota, but both these team are very different.
One player that has not changed for the Saints is quarterback Drew Brees, who last week turned back the clock as passed for 376 yards and two touchdowns to prove that he still has the magic in last week’s Wild Card game against the Carolina Panthers.
That was his most productive game in the playoffs since 2011 and if he repeats that kind of performance on Sunday the Saints may have a chance to defeat the Vikings, who a defense that is even stingier than Carolina’s.
The Vikings defense ranks first in total defense and scoring defense, but they will face a Saints offensive line that has been great this season as it has allowed the second-fewest sacks in the NFL.
This is important because Brees is a markedly different passer when he’s under pressure. This season he has a 63.9 rating when defenders are able to rush him and apply pressure while his rating improves to 113.4 when his offensive line protects him and keeps the pressure off.
That translates to him scoring more as his touchdown-interception ratio is 0-3 when under pressure and an eye-popping 23-5 when he faces no pressure. His completion percentage is also considerably higher as without pressure it balloons to 76.2 from 54.4 when he’s under pressure.
The Vikings thus need thus to rush him and hit him. They must apply pressure often and quick enough to force Brees to throw the ball before he wants to so his timing with his receivers and running backs is off and forces him into turnovers.
As for the Vikings offense, the main talk centers around quarterback Case Keenum and his lack of playoff experience. He must prove whether he can live up to the hype by beating the Saints defense, leading his team to victory and putting better numbers than Brees, a certain future Hall of Famer.
Keenum also will be under pressure to perform better because unlike New Orleans, Minnesota doesn’t have a duo of dominating running backs capable of taking over the game.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are the Saints two-headed-monster as they rushed for over 1,800 yards during the regular season and averaged about 5.5 yards per carry this season and are also really good catching short passes from Brees to help ease the pressure from the Vikings aggressive pass rush.
The Vikings are looking for their first home playoff win since 2009 and will try to become the first team in Super Bowl era to play the Championship game in their home building.
Prediction: The Vikings can’t win this game unless Keenum performs at a very high level and matches or comes very close to the numbers that Brees puts up. The Vikings running game is very good, but it’s not nearly as explosive as the Saints ground attack.
Both teams have defenses that are evenly matched up, but the Saints have the edge due to Brees playoff experience and a running back duo that will help him escape the pressure that the Vikings’ stingy D tries to put on him. Expect the Saints to win despite playing this game on the very loud confines of U.S Bank Stadium.
