The Chicago Cubs host the Colorado Rockies tonight at Wigley Field in the National League Wild Card game to decide who will move on to play the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday in the divisional round.
On Monday the Rockies lost to the Dodgers 5-2 at Chavez Ravine, while the Cubs lost to the Brewers at home 3-1 in the divisional tiebreakers, thus are now forced to play each other to decide who moves on and who goes home.
The Cubs have struggled at home recently so a victory over the Rockies is far from guaranteed. After all, the Cubs are here instead of resting with the division title in their pocket not because they lost game 163 to Milwaukee, but because they lost three of seven games in their final homestand of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.
If the Rockies win they would be playing their third game, in three different cities, in three different time zones, in three days. If the Cubs win they will get a rematch against the Brewers, but this time it would be a five-game series with Milwaukee holding the home-field advantage.
The game will feature a duel of lefties as the Rockies will send the 25-year-old Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85) to the mound opposite Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32). Freeland, who’s pitching on a three-day rest, has a 14-1 record since the All-Star break as his last loss came on August 1 at St. Louis. He’s unbeaten in his last 11 starts, amassing eight wins and three no-decisions in that span.
Lester has won four of his last five starts and is on a three-game winning streak. In that span he’s pitched 29.2 innings owning a 1.52 ERA, and a 30 to 8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Although Lester is a proven veteran with vast playoff experience who was a fundamental piece to the Cubs 2016 World Series campaign, he’s 0-2 with an ERA of well over five in his most recent elimination games.
The Cubs also must solve their hitting woes if they want to move on to the divisional series. Not only has Freeland been phenomenal after the break, but the Rockies pen has been firing on all cylinders.
The Rockies bullpen struggled between June and August, but since September has been phenomenal. The Rockies relievers have put together the third-best ERA in the National League, trailing only the Brewers and Dodgers.
The Cubs hitters have been in a funk for the past couple of weeks. Furthermore, Chicago’s offense has been shut out or held to one run 39 times. If the bats come out flat tonight the Rockies could celebrate in the Friendly Confines and move on to Milwaukee. If Jon Lester can shake off his struggles in win-or-go-home games and pitch at least six innings look for the Cubs to win this game.
