The 2018 Australian Open final will be contested on Sunday between world No. 2 Roger Federer and world No. 6 Marin Cilic in what will be a repeat of last year’s Wimbledon final.
In that final, held less than seven months ago, Federer was utterly dominant as he cruised to a win in straight sets (6-3,6-1 and 6-4) to claim his 19th Grand Slam title.
The Croatian will be looking to avenge that defeat, while Federer will try to be equally dominant en route to his 20th major. Although, Federer has enough talent to achieve another victory in three sets, as he’s yet to drop a set in this Australian Open, don’t expect that to happen.
Federer’s dominant head-to-head record over Cilic, eight wins in nine matches, and all the signs point to Federer winning this final, but not as easily as last year because Cilic’s also playing some very good tennis.
Cilic’s only win between the two players came in 2014 when he defeated Federer in the semifinals of the U.S Open in straight sets on his way to his only Grand Slam title.
Since that win for Cilic, they have played three matches and Federer won all of them. Most memorable was the 2016 Wimbledon quarterfinals match where Cilic went up two sets to none only to let Federer mount an epic comeback and win the last three sets.
Federer has proved mentally tougher than Cilic and has the edge on head-to-head matchups, so it will be hard for the Croatian to go into this match in a confident mood.
Federer is playing amazing tennis right now so it’s highly unlikely that he will allow Cilic to take a set lead, but if that happens he has the mental toughness and skills to mount another comeback.
That victory for Cilic in 2014 was the last time these two met on a hard surface so perhaps there’s something for Cilic to build his confidence and be hopeful about.
Their last match was at last year’s ATP Finals in London, where Federer won 2-1 (6-7, 6-4 and 6-1) after dropping the first set, which proved once more that Federer knows how to recover when he allows Cilic to take an early lead.
Both players are going into this final quite fresh as none of them have dealt with injury troubles and have yet to play a five-set match. Cilic has only dropped two sets in the entire tournament, while Federer has yet to drop one as mentioned before.
Cilic will have to use his big serve to try to take down Federer as he is a very good returner and will look to defeat Cilic by dragging him around the court and forcing him to use his weaker backhand.
Cilic’s has the better forehand in this match, but Federer’s backhand is the best of the two. Overall, Federer is the better player on paper, but in these instances that is not enough, as proved by Cilic’s 2014 victory.
Federer should win this match to claim his sixth Australian Open title, but don’t expect him to win in straight sets. A win in four sets is more likely, although it would not be shocking to see this one needing five sets to be decided.
Federer reached the final after his semifinal opponent, South Korea’s Chung Hyeon, had to retire because of a foot blister when he was trailing two sets to none. Cilic for his part defeated British player Kyle Edmund in straight sets (6-2,7-6 and 6-2) who dealt with hip problems during the match.
