The first NFL Wild Card game on Sunday features a matchup between the Buffalo Bills (9-7) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6), who earned the right to host the game after winning the AFC South to clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
After beating the Miami Dolphins last week, the Bills had to wait for the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Baltimore Ravens to secure a place in the AFC playoffs for the first time since 1999.
After the improbable happened and the Bills made the postseason, now they must prove they belong as they go out on the road to face a Jaguars team that on paper looks superior on all facets of the game.
Despite the joy of making the playoffs for the first time in 17 years, the Bills still had to deal with some bad news as running back LeSean McCoy (the Bills leading rusher and receiver) left the game with an ankle injury and he is still questionable for the game.
His absence will be felt heavily against a Jaguars defense that ranked second in the league in scoring and sacks as it boasts four players with eight or more sacks this season. The Jaguars defense has been vulnerable at times against the run this season, thus they will benefit considerably if McCoy can’t suit up on game day.
Bills fans are concerned and nervous about the health of the Bills No. 1 running back as McCoy this season led the league in scrimmage yards per game this season (108.3) and amassed 1,586 yards from scrimmage this season (3rd in the league).
His value to the Bills is immense as 31.1 percent of the Bills total scrimmage yards have come via McCoy, which also ranks him 3rd in the NFL, only behind running backs Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) and LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers).
The main element the Bills will miss from McCoy will be his talent to avoid unblocked defenders as nobody cuts on them better than McCoy does.
The Bills would love to get a healthy McCoy for this game because even with him on the field they would struggle to move the chains on the ground.
The Jaguars defensive front did a superb job this season getting penetration and they were solidly supported by the safeties and the corners who constantly got involved to get sacks and tackles for a loss.
Cornerbacks A.J Bouye and Jalen Ramsey anchored Jacksonville’s defense as they were ranked in the top 5 in passer rating allowed. Consequently, the Jaguars led the league as they held opposing quarterbacks to a 68.5 passer rating.
This happens because the one thing that Jacksonville does better than stopping the run is pressuring the quarterback.
That’s not good news for Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor who may be left to try to win the game by himself if the run game of the Bills sputters without McCoy.
On the offensive side of the ball, Jacksonville will be led by quarterback Blake Bortles who has been quite inconsistent this season and who on a bad day could very easily cost the Jaguars the game.
Consider that Bortles’ passer rating has been up and down this season as he’s averaged a 102.1 in the 10 Jaguars wins, but just 62.1 in Jacksonville’s six losses. His numbers from week 13 to 15 reflect this as he passed for seven touchdowns and no picks and averaged 301 yards per game. In contrast, during week 16 and 17 he had two touchdowns, was picked five times and passed for an average of 270 yards per game.
He’s been very good with the deep ball against single man coverage defense, but he struggles when he faces passing defenses.
If the Jaguars running game gets going Bortles may not have to win this game for Jacksonville, but if not they’d better hope he shows ready to play as Buffalo passing defense doesn’t concede too many passing touchdowns and may make things difficult for him.
Prediction: The lack of running game (if McCoy can’t go) and the heavy pass pressure will be too much for Buffalo, whose offense will fail to get going and may even feed the Jaguars stingy defense, which could end up scoring off a turnover or two.
