As the World Series’ Game 7 takes place tonight at Dodger Stadium the Houston Astros should take a special interest in the performance of two of the most important pieces of their lineup: Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
Since the ALCS began, as these two players go, so goes Houston. Altuve and Correa are hitting a meager 0.70 in the Astros defeats, while they hit .435 in the games the Astros win. Other telling numbers: these two players have combined for 17 RBIs in wins and have zero in losses, while amassing 12 extra base hits in the Astros wins and just one in losses.
Problem is, the Astros hitters tend to struggle away from home and if they want to win tonight they will have to be considerably better.
Home-field advantage has not been a big factor historically in Game 7, but in these playoffs, it has clearly helped the Dodgers and impacted the Astros negatively.
Los Angeles has won six of the seven games they have played at Dodger Stadium this postseason, with the only loss being Game 2 against Houston, in which they let go a two-run lead in the eighth inning.
The Astros, on the other hand, have only won two of the eight that they have played away from Minute Maid Park. This postseason the Astros average almost three fewer runs on the road (5.67 vs. 2.75), while the Dodgers scored more runs away from home (6.14 vs 5.4) but allowed less runs at home (3.14 vs 3.70).
Historically there have been 38 Game 7s, with the road team winning 20 times and the home team 18. Although in the last 11 instances the home team has a 9-2 record, since 2014 the road team has a record of 2-0 in World 7 games. In 2014the San Francisco Giants defeated the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium and last year the Chicago Cubs defeated the Indians at Progressive Field.
To try to continue that trend the Astros will send Lance McCullers to the mound, while the Dodgers will start to their Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish.
But regardless of who starts both managers have made it clear that anyone on the bullpen and the rotation could pitch tonight if necessary, even game six starters Rich Hill and Justin Verlander and aces Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already shown that he won’t hesitate to take out one of his starters if he isn’t pitching well enough or even if he’s doing an ok job (just ask Rich Hill in game 2).
The early exits from his starters complicate matters for the Dodgers because the bullpen is fatigued.
Several relievers have had heavier workloads than usual and thrown more than 100 pitches (Kenley Jansen 109 and Kenta Maeda 106). Others, such as Brendan Morrow have had to pitch in every game of this series and it’s valid to wonder how well they can perform if this game goes to extra innings.
But, truth be told, both teams are exhausted, and the nerves could play a big part of this game as most of these players don’t have previous World Series experience.
The Dodgers, who had not won or played in a World Series since 1988, have not played in a World Series Game 7 since 1965 (when Sandy Koufax was the starter); while the Astros have never played in one as they were swept in their first-ever World Series by the Chicago White Sox in 2005.
The stage is set for a grand finale where the result may be too close to call as stats have proven to mean nothing, and several MLB records have already been broken.
