(from part 1) MLB and basketball opening lines were now posted the afternoon before the games, while ‘opening’ football lines were all over the place, and most of the very first bets against those numbers were of the arbitrage variety, not opinion bets. Bettors were very happy to lay -2.5 on a game in one book and take +3.5 on that same game at another book. If you were trying to track line moves off the opening numbers there were enormous differences depending on which book or books you were tracking.
Frankly, that hasn’t changed all that much over the last six or eight years. Different books, both here in town, and offshore, are posting different numbers at different times. Those differences aren’t just a half point here or there – particularly early in the season, they can be quite dramatic. And when it comes to Week 1 numbers for the NFL and college football, it’s no easy task to figure out which bets off the openers were ‘opinion’ wagers, and which were purely arbitrage.
NFL Week 1 numbers that have been posted at some books since May. NCAA Week 1 numbers have become widespread this past week but true ‘virgin’ numbers were posted well before MLB’s All Star break. In this type of environment, bettors tracking the ‘opening’ numbers are left with a wild hodge-podge to consider.
Last week, at the first meeting of the year for the legendary ‘Tuesday Group’ of sharp bettors here in Vegas, there was a spirited debate about what the ‘official’ college football Week 1 opening numbers actually are/were. It was a similar story in the NFL, although the disparity between opening numbers in the pro ranks was much less dramatic.
Two-time Hilton (now LVH) Supercontest winner Steve Fezzik won the argument at the Tuesday Group, because his theory made the most sense. He said that the concept of any single book posting the opening lines for any sport is simply outdated. The books post their initial opinions, but it’s the global betting market, not the sportsbook, who truly sets the opening number.
The majority of the moves off the initial openers (both offshore and here in Vegas) are arbitrage; with wiseguy bettors looking to snap up ‘off-market’ numbers in the brief period when they are available. That’s why we see relatively light action when any single book posts their numbers. The heavier action only comes when another book (or two, or three) posts their opening lines, and bettors take advantage of the variance between them.
For Week 1 of the NFL and college football seasons, those initial variances have been ironed out over the summer months. The NFL openers got pounded into a consensus line fairly quickly; but the college marketplace took longer – books posted later and there was substantially more variance from one book to the next.
So, to get back to my initial question at the top of this article, what is exactly is ‘The Opening Line’? For Week 1, I used a consensus of a major sportsbooks as of last Wednesday, August 7th. At that time, the market had begun to mature, and there was only a half point difference – at the most – between one book’s lines and the others.
By and large, those numbers haven’t moved one iota since last week. If you’re looking for the consensus opening lines, you can walk into any sportsbook or look online today, write down the current numbers and feel comfortable that you’re not missing anything. These numbers won’t start to jump around again until the final week before the season begins.
A consensus opening line takes out the oversized influence of any one book, and takes ‘rogue’ numbers coveted by wiseguys but available to only a few bettors for a very short period of time out of the equation. If you are routinely beating the CLOSING number (at kickoff), you’re doing your job as a savvy bettor. Getting the very best number every time from every book is nearly impossible.
Once the regular season begins, the concept remains the same. Cantor has lines up for every single NFL Game this year through Week 16. LVH posts ‘lookahead’ lines for the NFL more than a week before those games are played. Those can’t be considered ‘opening lines’.
On Sunday afternoons during football season, the Wynn Las Vegas has been posting the very first numbers in recent years. Other books, here in town and offshore, follow soon after. I don’t consider any of those the true ‘opening’ number anymore. Instead, an 8 AM Monday morning ‘consensus’ line is a far better tool for bettors to use when making their subsequent wagers throughout the week.
