Although early lines have already been posted on next seasons win totals for college football teams, the college football betting market takes a bit longer to develop over the summer months than does the NFL numbers.
The major sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore put up the NFL Week 1 odds way back in May. The odds on the ‘NFL Game of the Year’ were also posted. By the beginning of July, books were standing ‘knee deep’ in NFL season win wagers.
NCAA College Football numbers are a bit different because, in the first place, the handicappers are required to research and post numbers on not 32 teams, as in the NFL, but on 125 college teams that will be competing on the gridiron starting in September.
Just mounting a list of all of the factors that go into adjusting the lines for college football is a formidable task indeed. With 125 teams involved the possible variations are staggering.
A major sportsbook in Costa Rica, has already posted season win numbers for NCAA football next year. They were quickly followed by the Las Vegas heavyweights William Hill, Cantor Gaming and the big LVH Superbook who all posted similar odds on win totals.
College football win totals don’t exactly look like NFL totals. For example, we don’t see many NFL point spreads higher than -14. Looking at all 16 games set for Week 1, only the Thursday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos is lined at higher than -7.
Remember the Al Pacino movie, ‘On Any Given Sunday’? The title was derived from the old adage that ‘any team in the NFL could beat any other team in the NFL “on any given Sunday”.’ It speaks of the parody within the league and there is still a good bit of truth to it.
Not so in college football where the best teams are routinely ranked as 4, 5 or even 6 touchdown favorites against an obviously weaker team on their schedule. For example, Alabama was -30 point favorites to beat an Ole Miss team last year that beat Pitt by 3 touchdowns in post season play. Oregon and Boise State are regularly listed as 20+ point favorites.
And last but not least… among the more intriguing college win totals are Arkansas 5.5 wins Over -140, Indiana University 5.5 wins Over -210, UNLV 4.5 wins Under -175 and West Virginia 5.5 Under +175.
